Recovery Strategy
Aurora Manila Hotel · Executive advisory report — issued in response to a forecast 182-day opening delay
Where the project stands today
- • Curtain wall re-fabrication (81 days)
- • MEP coordination on levels 21–35 (58 days)
- • Long-lead FF&E revision for suites (43 days)
Proceed with Scenario A — Partial Opening of floors 7–20
A staged commissioning of the lower stack recovers roughly USD 18.4M of otherwise-lost revenue, preserves the brand launch window and stabilises operator payroll — while the upper tower completes under a separated construction zone. Verified readiness across lifts, PMS/POS and back-of-house circulation makes this executable without extraordinary risk.
Three paths considered
Commission floors 7–20 (168 keys), the lobby, all-day dining and the spa. Upper-tower floors remain sequenced construction zones with separated guest circulation. Preserves the brand debut window and stabilises operator payroll ahead of full inventory.
- Vertical construction noise into upper-floor stack
- Dual life-safety zoning must be signed off by fire authority
- ADR positioning risk if suite inventory is withheld
Trial operations with 40 keys, curated F&B and no spa. Useful for systems shakedown but delivers limited financial recovery and risks a muted press cycle for the brand debut.
- Below breakeven on operator payroll during ramp
- Brand narrative dilution if launch is perceived as unfinished
- Guest sentiment risk from restricted amenities
Absorbs the full 6-month delay. Removes commissioning complexity but crystallises the entire revenue-at-risk figure and extends pre-opening burn against the owner's cash reserve.
- USD 46.8M revenue exposure fully realised
- Operator pre-opening fees extended by two quarters
- Investor confidence impact ahead of Series-B raise
Conditions the recommendation depends on
Once Bullion is connected, this action will pull the owner's underwriting model and compare each recovery scenario side-by-side on P&L, EBITDA, cash flow, ROI and working capital. Results are attached to this advisory as an appendix and shared with the investment committee.
Adopt Scenario A — Partial Opening — as the sanctioned recovery path for Aurora Manila Hotel.
Scenario A is the only path that materially reduces the USD 46.8M revenue exposure while remaining defensible against verified operator readiness, life-safety zoning progress and back-of-house commissioning. Scenario B delivers insufficient financial recovery to justify the reputational risk of a muted brand debut, and Scenario C accepts the full delay without offsetting benefit. Executive sponsors should close out the operator sign-off gap and the fire authority filing as the two conditions precedent for board approval.